Modeling of water erosion under future scenarios: a literature review

Abstract

Water erosion is recognized as one of the main environmental problems, and its intensity is expected to increase in the coming decades, resulting in more degraded environments. Despite its relevance, the specialized literature on this topic is still limited. In this context, the present article aims to identify trends, methods, and variables used in studies on water erosion modeling under future scenarios. To this end, a search was conducted in the Scopus database, followed by the application of bibliometric techniques and selected systematic analysis tools. The results revealed an increase in publications from 2020 onwards, possibly driven by the higher frequency of extreme climatic events and advances in climate models. The predominance of the RUSLE method (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) was observed, reflected in the recurrent use of variables such as rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, slope steepness, land use and land cover, and soil conservation practices. However, relevant gaps were identified, especially those related to the lack of validation in some studies and the scarcity of research in arid and semi-arid regions. Overall, the article highlights essential aspects of this research area, providing a consistent overview of current trends and serving as a foundation for future investigations.