The conditions of urban expansion in medium-sized cities in the brazilian semi-arid region: a causal inference approach

Abstract

The promotion of regional development in the northeastern semi-arid region, such as the internalization of industries, services and educational institutions, which began in the 1960s, led to the growth of medium-sized cities and the reversal of an urbanization pattern that concentrated resources solely in Brazil's large coastal metropolises. The medium-sized cities, as they are also known, have gained increasing prominence in the semi-arid region as poles of influence and have received a population and economic growth in recent decades which has been reflected in urban expansion, impacting on nearby small towns. The objective of this paper is to investigate the geographical factors that have conditioned urban expansion in six medium-sized cities in the Brazilian semi-arid region: Campina Grande (PB), Caruaru (PE), Arapiraca (AL), Mossoró (RN), Feira de Santana (BA) and Juazeiro do Norte (CE). The methodology combined a correlation analysis and the construction of a causal model between the variables that describe the pattern of urban growth and the distance from the main centrality of these cities. The results allowed us to conclude that, despite the spatial particularities of the municipalities, there are indicators capable of inferring how urban growth was conducted in the context of the medium-sized cities of the northeastern semi-arid region.