Forescating Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in the Municipality of Porto Seguro, Bahia

Abstract

Uncontrolled urban growth impacts the environment and society, resulting in habitat fragmentation, loss of green areas, and increased soil impermeability. Within this context, the municipality of Porto Seguro, in Bahia, Brazil, exemplifies the complexities associated with accelerated urban growth. The aim of this study is to model land use and land cover scenarios for 2029, 2039, and 2049 in the municipality of Porto Seguro, Bahia. For this purpose, data from the MapBiomas platform were acquired. The spatial data were processed in a Geographic Information System environment, and spatial modeling was performed using the Molusce plugin, using descriptors such as correlation analysis, area variation analysis, modeling, simulation, and validation methods. The results from 1985 to 2021 showed an increase in mangroves, forest recovery, and fluctuations in other classes. However, the simulations indicated a slight decline in mangroves, forest maintenance, and expansion of non-vegetated areas and water bodies. Therefore, it is important to implement careful management to protect these valuable ecosystems and ensure their long-term preservation. The active participation of the local community and civil society is essential for the conservation and effective management of these natural resources.