Climate Change Scenarios and Water Implications at the Epitácio Pessoa Dam – Paraíba

Abstract

This article analyzes the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Epitácio Pessoa Dam, located in the semiarid region of Paraíba. The study focuses on changes in hydrological cycles, the increase in extreme events, and changes in precipitation patterns, primarily due to prolonged periods of drought. The methodology included, in addition to a review of national and international literature, the analysis of time series graphs, divided into two time periods: the first spanning thirty years (1993-2023) for time series data, and the second spanning eleven years (2012-2023) for seasonality, forecast, trend, and stationary data extracted from official AESA databases. The statistical models ARIMA and SARIMA were also applied, along with the Dickey-Fuller test to assess stationarity and the Mann-Kendall test to identify trends. This study highlights water vulnerability and the implications for water systems in semiarid regions, compromising the future climate scenario. In this sense, the results show significant climate variations, which affect water availability and quality, evaporation, and seasonality, aspects that directly affect long-term water supply.