Análise de estabilidade de taludes usando uma abordagem probabilística

Slope stability analysis using a probabilistic approach

Abstract

This paper presents a study that utilizes computational implementations of the FOSM and Monte Carlo methods. These methods aim to determine the probability of slope rupture in areas prone to shallow landslides. The study focuses on the Vila Rabelo region situated in the administrative zone of Sobradinho II, Federal District. The computational approach involves two distinct programming tools: MATLAB for the FOSM method, and FORTRAN for the Monte Carlo simulation method. The analysis reveals that the Monte Carlo method tends to yield higher maximum rupture probability values compared to the FOSM method, particularly in steep terrain. A convergence analysis for the Monte Carlo method was undertaken to illustrate how the appropriate number of simulations is determined. Furthermore, findings indicate spatial proximity and occasionally higher values in the spatial distribution of rupture probabilities obtained from the Monte Carlo method compared to the FOSM method. The variations in rupture probability values achieved through probabilistic methods stem from the distribution configurations of the cohesion variable, which is one of the input data.